Now that the 25-man opening day roster is set, Eric Wilbur (the Boston.com sportwriter/blogger) is predicting how the season will turn out. I've pulled his predictions re: the bullpen and have reproduced them here (fair use, right?):
Keith Foulke: Last season’s meltdown was the first time Foulke had had an ERA above 2.97 since 1998. With his head seemingly back on his shoulders this spring, and his performance on the mound thus far solid, Foulke’s comeback is off to a good start, which means the Fenway fans will embrace him from the get-go. But Craig Hansen lies waiting in Pawtucket, and if Theo Epstein can get a team to bite on Foulke mid-season, you can bet he won’t hesitate to deal him away.
Prediction: 3.56 ERA, 22 saves
Jonathan Papelbon: Boston’s ace-in-waiting will start the year doing a little setup work, quite possibly closing some ballgames. He should be in the rotation as soon as one of the starting five go down with an injury, or if one of them is dealt.
Prediction: 9-3, 3.07 ERA, 6 saves
Lenny DiNardo: Will shuttle to Pawtucket when Wells comes off the DL, but should be back up with the club sooner than later based on the turbulent state of affairs in the bullpen.
Prediction: 3.65 ERA
Julian Tavarez: The only question is, will he finish the season with more holds or more days suspended?
Prediction: 4.33 ERA
Mike Timlin: Last season was widely considered one of his best, but there’s some smoke and mirrors there. Timlin allowed 18 of 32 inherited runners to score, and his 1.32 WHIP was his worst since 2001. But he was the only reliable arm in the ‘pen for much of the season, and in a more suited middle relief role this season.
Prediction: 3.33 ERA
David Riske: Eric Wedge gave up on him down the stretch last season. The only reason Terry Francona won’t is because he’s got Rudy Seanez to worry about.
Prediction: 4.87 ERA
Rudy Seanez: The sequel is just as bad as the original.
Prediction: 5.04 ERA
It is somewhat shocking to me that three of the last four guys here in the bullpen actually make the team without questions -- they're way more expensive than a Delcarmen, a Hansen, a Lester, a Meredith and -- if Wilbur's predictions prove correct -- way worse in the ERA department. Remember, these guys pitch for 0.1 - 1.2 innings a game. A 5.xx ERA is not a good sign. I'm sure *veteran leadership* in the pen is always good, but I don't think Francona should hesitate to pull the trigger and give a chance to one of these kids in the system if Riske, Seanez, or Tavarez implodes. That's why we play the games, right?
Thanks to Wilbur for the positive prediction on Lenny...
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